AI / ML & Autonomy

Confidence and False Alarms

Adjust detector sensitivity and observe how true positives, false positives, true negatives, and false negatives change — and choose a threshold that fits the mission risk profile.

High school
Time estimate
30–35 min
Complexity
advanced
Maturity
pilot ready
Simulator readiness
implemented
Software available now
Implemented as interactive sensitivity trade-off explorer at `/twin/learn/activities/aiml_simple_fault_rules` — deterministic preset confusion-matrix data, browser-local only.

Learning outcomes

Student can explain the trade-off between sensitivity and false alarm rate, read a confusion matrix, and justify a sensitivity setting based on mission risk tolerance.

  • Define true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative.
  • Explain the sensitivity-specificity trade-off using the confusion matrix.
  • Justify a threshold setting choice for a stated mission risk profile.

Concept primer

Adjust detector sensitivity and observe how true positives, false positives, true negatives, and false negatives change — and choose a threshold that fits the mission risk profile.

Open Confidence and False Alarms at `/twin/learn/activities/aiml_simple_fault_rules` — interactive sensitivity slider with confusion-matrix-style counts and operational notes (teaching-grade).

Draw a 2×2 confusion matrix; fill it in for two different threshold settings; calculate precision and recall for each.

Interactive lab

Teaching-grade software activity slot — not a flight simulator or certified propagator.

Step 1 — Adjust sensitivity

Sensitivity Threshold

Drag the slider to change how sensitive the anomaly detector is. Watch how TP, FP, TN, and FN change.

Very LowLowBalancedHighVery High

Balanced (Default)

Balanced threshold — reasonable trade-off for most classroom scenarios.

Confusion matrix — 35 test cases

Detection Counts

True Positives (TP)

12

Real faults detected correctly

False Positives (FP)

3

Normal cases flagged as faults

True Negatives (TN)

17

Normal cases correctly ignored

False Negatives (FN)

3

Real faults missed

Precision — 80.0% of positive alerts are real12
Recall — 80.0% of real faults detected12

Operational note

3 false alarms and 3 missed faults. A reasonable starting point — both costs are low and the operator remains informed.

Self-check · Local only

3 questions — 0/3 answered correctly

Local-only. No submission, no grade. Answers revealed here only.

If you increase detector sensitivity, what typically happens to false positives and false negatives?

What is 'alarm fatigue' in an operations context?

A confusion matrix shows TP=14, FP=7, TN=13, FN=1. What is the precision of the classifier?

Evidence capture · Local only

Your evidence — Confidence and False Alarms

Local-only. No submission, no backend, no grade. Copy or screenshot to share.

Sensitivity level
3 — Balanced (Default)
True Positives (TP)
12
False Positives (FP)
3
True Negatives (TN)
17
False Negatives (FN)
3
Precision
80.0%
Recall
80.0%
Operational note
3 false alarms and 3 missed faults. A reasonable starting point — both costs are low and the operator remains informed.

Evidence capture

Expected outputs learners should be able to show after the lab (Phase 9 evidence engine preview available).

  • TP/FP/TN/FN counts at chosen sensitivity level
  • Chosen sensitivity setting with operational justification
  • One-sentence explanation of alarm fatigue risk
  • Self-check summary and copied evidence text

Reflection

Adjust the sensitivity slider across five levels; record TP, FP, TN, FN at each level; choose a setting and justify it for a stated mission risk profile.

Responses are not persisted in this preview unless a specific activity component adds storage later.

Assessment / quick check

A detector has TP=14, FP=7, TN=13, FN=1. Calculate precision and recall, and state which setting would cause alarm fatigue and why.

Teacher notes

Ask: 'Would you rather miss one real fault, or get seven false alarms per day?' Use student answers to surface the mission-specific trade-off.

Next activity

Suggested progression from the mission learning path. Links avoid missing activity routes.